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July Market Update

The Valley Is Becoming a Two-Speed Real Estate Market

If you've been following real estate headlines lately, you've probably noticed mixed messages. Some reports suggest the market is slowing. Others point to rising prices and continued demand. The reality is that both can be true at the same time.

What we're seeing across Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, and the greater Phoenix area is a growing separation between market segments. In many ways, there isn't one housing market anymore. There are several.

The most significant dividing line today is around the $1 million price point.

For homes priced below $1 million, buyers remain highly focused on affordability, monthly payments, and interest rates. Activity continues, but appreciation has been relatively modest. Buyers are taking their time, comparing options carefully, and often negotiating for concessions or rate buydowns.

Above $1 million, the story changes considerably.

Luxury and upper-tier markets are being driven less by mortgage rates and more by cash positions, stock market gains, business ownership, and equity migration from more expensive markets such as California, Washington, Colorado, and parts of the Northeast. These buyers are often focused on lifestyle, location, quality, and long-term value rather than monthly payment calculations.

Recent market data illustrates this trend clearly. Since early 2023, average price per square foot has declined approximately 7% for homes under $500,000 and remained relatively flat for those between $500,000 and $1 million. Price per square foot increased about 4% between $1 million and $3 million, and climbed approximately 17% for properties above $3 million.

This helps explain why some homeowners feel the market has slowed while others continue to see strong demand and rising values. Both experiences are valid. They simply exist in different segments of today's market.

Brad's Take

One of the most common questions I hear is, "Where is the market heading?"
My answer today is usually another question: "Are we talking about a home above or below $1 million?"
That distinction matters more now than at any point in recent memory.
In the Luxury market, I continue to see motivated buyers pursuing exceptional properties in Scottsdale and Paradise Valley. Homes with great locations, updated finishes, privacy, views, and resort-style amenities are still attracting attention and commanding strong prices.

In the broader market, buyers are active - but they are being deliberate. They have more choices, they're doing their homework and they're expecting value.

Overall, I remain optimistic about Arizona's long-term outlook. We continue to attract new residents because of our business climate, lifestyle, retirement opportunities, expanding technology and healthcare sectors, as well as relative affordability compared to many coastal markets.

As always, real estate is local. Understanding the specific market segment you're buying or selling in is far more important than relying on national headlines.

If you're curious about your home's value, considering a move, or simply want to discuss what's happening in your neighborhood, I'd be happy to help.

Wishing you a safe and happy Fourth of July and a wonderful summer ahead.

If you are considering a move, curious about your home's value or simply want insight into current market conditions, I'm always happy to be a resource.